The world of AFL is buzzing with a potential crisis brewing for the Brisbane Lions, and it's not just about one bad game. An expert analysis of historical data has revealed an 'alarming' trend that could spell trouble for the back-to-back premiers.
The Defensive Dilemma
David King, a dual North Melbourne premiership player, has sounded the alarm on Brisbane's defensive woes. After a heavy defeat to Geelong, the Lions' defensive numbers are raising eyebrows. King believes that while it's easy to brush off one loss, the underlying trend is a cause for concern.
"History never lies. The defensive numbers don't lie either." - David King
King's analysis delves into the past, highlighting similar situations with previous premiers. He points out that teams often show signs of decline around this time of the season, and it's a pattern that cannot be ignored.
A Historical Perspective
Looking back at the 2023 season, Geelong, the previous year's premiers, saw a dip in their defensive rankings. By Round 10, they ranked 11th in points against, and this trend continued, ultimately leading to a 12th-place finish on the ladder. A similar story unfolded for Collingwood in 2024, dropping from second to ninth in defensive rankings by Round 10.
"It's an emotional and mental drop-off. Everyone just drops off a fraction, and that's what we're seeing at Brisbane." - King
Brisbane's Defensive Slump
The numbers don't lie for Brisbane either. After their 2024 premiership, the Lions were conceding four more points per game by Round 10, 2025, but they managed to 'hold ground'. This year, however, the situation is different. Brisbane is conceding a whopping 11 more points per game, dropping from sixth to 10th in defensive rankings.
"This is a problem. People are saying 'she'll be right', but I don't think so. Chris Fagan knows there's trouble ahead." - King
King believes that the Lions need to have a serious discussion about their defensive strategy. With teams targeting Brisbane as the team to beat, the Lions cannot afford to let these habits persist.
Elite Opposition, Elite Scores
The Lions have conceded big scores to some of the competition's elite teams, including 111 points to the Bulldogs, 104 to both Sydney and Melbourne, and a recent 117-point loss to Geelong. Last year, Brisbane's defense was rock-solid against top-eight teams, conceding an average of just 74 points. This year, they're nowhere near that mark.
"They're nowhere near 74. They're nowhere near 80. It's time for Brisbane to sit down and ask themselves if it still means the same." - King
Implications and Takeaway
The implications of Brisbane's defensive struggles are significant. King believes that if the Lions want to win three premierships in a row, they need to address this issue immediately. While he's not writing them off, King emphasizes that allowing the competition's best teams these kinds of scoring opportunities will make it difficult to hold the cup.
"This is a point in time where Brisbane needs to stamp this out." - King
So, will the Lions be able to turn things around? Only time will tell, but one thing's for sure: the experts are watching, and the pressure is on.
